2020年4月21日，上海国际问题研究院学术委员会主任杨洁勉主持召开“加强国际抗疫合作和维护中美关系（五）”的视频研讨会。中方与会者有：院长陈东晓、全球治理所所长张海冰。美方与会者有：密执安大学教授、原美国总统特别助理和国家安全委员会亚太事务高级主任李侃如（Kenneth Lieberthal）；布鲁金斯学会中国中心高级研究员、原美国财政部在美国驻华使馆的代表David Dollar。双方与会者就当前和今后的国际形势、世界经济和中美关系进行了坦诚和深入的讨论，双方认为中美两个全球大国要有历史担当，坚决排除一切干扰，维护中美关系和推进国际合作抗疫。
附：张海冰所长发言稿全文
The Pandemic’s Impacts on US-China Economic Relations
Zhang Haibing
1. The coronavirus has impacted Sino- US economic relations, but China and the United States remain each other's third largest market. China is still a top market for US exporters, reflecting the important commercial opportunity it presents to American businesses. According to the report released by US-China Business Council on April 17, 2020 State Export Report, despite tariffs and uncertain challenges, exports to China continued to be important to US economic growth, supporting just under one million jobs. China still managed to be the third-largest market for US goods and services.
The US is still the most important market for China. According to customs statistics, the total value of China's import and export of goods in the first quarter of 2020 was 6.57 trillion yuan, down 6.4% from the same period of last year. Among them, the export was 3.33 trillion yuan, down 11.4%; the import was 3.24 trillion yuan, down 0.7%; and the trade surplus was 98.33 billion yuan, down 80.6%.ASEAN has surpassed the EU as China's largest trading partner. In the first quarter, China's import and export to ASEAN reached 991.34 billion yuan, an increase of 6.1%, accounting for 15.1% of China's total foreign trade value. ASEAN became China's largest trading partner; the import and export to EU reached 875.93 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.4%; the import and export to the United States reached 668.01 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.3%.
2. The biggest threat of the global pandemic to China-US economic relations is not in the short term, but in the long term. The pandemic has given impetus tothe trend of nationalism and anti-globalization, and will continue to affect the global trade, investment and industrial chain. Economic globalization will face a new round of pressure of protectionism and economic nationalism.The momentum of "decoupling" between the United States and China is on the rise. Countries will increasingly favor industrial policies that reduce external dependence as much as possible, although decoupling policies will increase unnecessary economic, social and even political costs.
3.China-US economic relations have come to a crossroads. The two countries’ choice between cooperation anddecoupling will determine whether the world economy will bea whole system or two parallel systems. Supporting globalization is not the real question here. Instead,what matters most iswhat kind of globalization is neededfor the world economy. For future globalization, the key issue is to build an orderly power framework and institutional framework so that globalization can better servethe human community.To handlethe competition and conflict between China and the United States, the G20 framework may not be ideal. The two countries should continue the consultation overthe trade disputesand further expand the scope of the dialogue.
4.The pandemic has a significantimpact on China's economy. In March, the unemployment rate in the urban survey was 5.9%, and the economic growth was negative in the first quarter. However, China adopted apositive macroeconomic policy for adjustment and response, and the economic quality was improving, for example the new infrastructure.
On April 20, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) identified the scope of the new infrastructure. The new infrastructure mainly includes the following three aspects:One is information infrastructure. The second is the integration of infrastructure. Mainly refers to the in-depth application of Internet, big data, artificial intelligence and other technologies to support the transformation and upgrading of traditional infrastructure.The third is innovative infrastructure. Mainly refers to the infrastructure with public welfare attributes supporting scientific research, technology development, and product development, such as major scientific and technological infrastructure, science and education infrastructure, industrial technology innovation infrastructure, etc.
5．Policy suggestions:
China and the United States should resume bilateral economic dialogue and consultation as soon as possible. The implementation of the first phase of the agreement on trade disputes between China and the United States may be delayed due to the impact of the pandemic, but it will not affect the final outcome, because China is more thanwilling to strengthenthe basis of the dialogue between China and the United States.
China and the United States should enhancemedical cooperation, not only bilaterally, but also multilaterally.US and China should carry out more cooperation in Africa and Latin America. The impact of the global pandemic on the economy depends on its future development. The uncontrolled pandemic in developing countries will not only hurt themselves, but also the economy in developed countries as well.
The pandemic has a great impact on SMEs. China and the United States should strengthen exchanges and dialogues and take effective measures to help SMEs. The third China International Import Expo may provide new channels for small and medium-sized American enterprises to enter the Chinese market.
(April 21, 2020)