2020年4月17日，上海国际问题研究院学术委员会主任杨洁勉主持召开“加强国际抗疫合作和维护中美关系”系列视频研讨会之四。中方与会者有：院长陈东晓、台港澳研究所所长邵育群。美方与会者为卡内基国际和平基金会副会长、原美国总统特别助理和国家安全委员会亚太事务高级主任包道格（Douglas Paal）。双方与会者就当前和今后的国际形势、全球秩序和中美关系进行了坦诚和深入的讨论，双方认为中美两个全球大国在处理相互关系时特别需要开拓视野和放眼未来，把当前国际合作抗疫和维护中美关系结合起来。
杨洁勉主任发言稿全文
What Will World Order Look Like in Post-Pandemic Years?
Jiemian YANG
The term of world order has no all agreed definitions and often is used interchangeably with such terms as international order, international system, global order and global governance. Therefore, here I am using "world order" with some overlapping meanings with international system and order, as well as global governance.
Financial crisis in 2008 exerted a strong impact on world economic order and the current Covid-19 is impacting the world order in an even more comprehensive way. Dr. Henry Kissinger published an op-ed article on the Wall Street Journal of April 3 with the title of "The Coronavirus Pandemic Will Forever Alter the World Order". He said that while the assault on human health will—hopefully—be temporary, the political and economic upheaval it has unleashed could last for generations. Understandably, Dr. Kissinger did not go into details. Therefore, let me try to go further and talk about four changes that the Covid-19 pandemic has brought and will bring to the world.
Firstly, the thematic changes. There are at least three meanings. (1) The Covid-19 has already made great losses of human lives and economic costs that some people started to compare these with the two world wars of last century. (2) The Covid-19 poses a threat of life and death to the whole mankind. Therefore, for the time being, it must overwhelm all other thematic subjects such as race, religion, ideology and military alliance. (3) The world is asked to rebalance the weight of traditional and non-traditional security in their overall considerations. There is an increasing realization that the traditional ways of military alliance and geo-strategy are unable to deal with many non-traditional security threats such as pandemic, refugees and international terrorists.
Secondly, the leadership vacuum. When dealing with the Covid-19, actors are rising exponentially. Almost all the state and non-state actors have been involved without strong leadership. Therefore, too many cooks spoil the soup. Many countries are busy with their internal protection and external isolation. The United States does not want assume the international obligation and responsibility. Since the Trump administration came to power in 2017, there has sawn a cluster of US quitting from the TPP, Paris Agreement on Climate Changes, the Iranian Nuclear Agreement, the INF Treaty (Intermediate Nuclear Forces), the UN Human Rights Council and others. China has neither intention nor capability to be the world leader. There is an urgent need and strong demand for all the countries to put aside their competitions for the time being and work together against the Covid-19. Of course, global and regional powers have special responsibility to do so.
Thirdly, the institution deficiency. Institution here refers to organizations, regulations and rules, norms and principles. (1) Globally, the existing organizations are in short of authorities. The World Health Organization and the United Nations have no execution power. Regionally, the public health work of EU and ASEAN do not live up to the functions as expected, let alone other less integrated regions. Nationally, many developing countries' public health organizations are in deplorable shape. (2) The world is in short of both traditional and non-traditional security cooperative institutions. This pandemic shows that new science and technology will play a much greater role in the future political, economic, social and educational fields. However, the world does not have effective and coordinative organizations. (3) The international community does not only need to update the existing norms and rules, but should also work together to formulate the new ones to meet the unprecedented challenges.
Last but not least, making no hasty conclusion. Many people said that the Covid-19 will greatly change the world. Some people said that a totally new world order will emerge after the Covid-19, which I would not agree with. In my opinion, the world order will be different but still in a transitional period with a lot more changes ahead. Therefore, we should refrain ourselves from defining a new world order easily and quickly. Moreover, the Chinese and American governments have not discussed such big topics as world order, actually they even do not discuss small topics either. Therefore, we think tank people could start to discuss about these urgent and important topics as well as make propositions.
(April 17, 2020)